Perigo e risco de incêndios vegetacionais em bacias hidrográficas com diferentes níveis de desenvolvimento regional, no sudeste da Amazônia
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Data
2023-10
Autores
Orientador
Jasper, André
Banca
Souza, Adilson Pacheco De
Oliveira, Rodrigo Rafael Souza De
Machado, Neli Teresinha Galarce
Título do periódico
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Resumo
O estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as relações existentes entre os elementos do clima e a sazonalidade de índices de perigo de incêndios e da ocorrência de focos de calor, bem como, mapear os riscos de ocorrência incêndios vegetacionais em bacias hidrográficas da região Sudeste da Amazônia brasileira, afluentes do rio Xingu. Inicialmente, foi realizada a caracterização ambiental e da ocupação e cobertura da terra nas bacias de interesse. Na sequência, com dados meteorológicos diários de 63 estações meteorológicas automáticas da rede de estação do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) e do Agritempo/EMBRAPA, foram avaliados os índices de perigo de incêndio de Angstrom, FMA+ e P-EVAP. As três áreas apresentaram sazonalidade climática semelhante, com estação chuvosa entre outubro e abril, e, a estação seca entre maio e setembro. Dessa forma, os índices de perigo de incêndio demostraram semelhanças sazonais. Angstrom demonstrou que entre junho e setembro, o número de dias com perigo de incêndio é igual ou superior a 84%. O índice FMA+, apontou nesse mesmo período, 100% dos dias, independentemente da bacia hidrográfica, estão nas classes de perigo alto e muito alto. O índice P-EVAP, revelou que entre junho e agosto, 97,43% dos dias apresentam perigo alto ou muito alto de incêndio. Em média, 92,8%, 70,9% e 89,1% dos focos de calor ocorreram nos meses de estiagem para as bacias hidrográficas dos rios Culuene, Comandante Fontoura e Fresco, respectivamente. O índice de perigo de incêndio P-EVAP, conforme os valores do Skill Score e da porcentagem de sucesso exibiu os melhores resultados. Posteriormente, realizou-se um mapeamento dos riscos de ocorrência de incêndios vegetacionais nas áreas, com o auxílio de técnicas de geoprocessamento realizou-se o cruzamento de nove variáveis ambientais afim de se alcançar um mapa de risco de ocorrência de incêndios vegetacionais. As variáveis ambientais foram reclassificadas conforme sua relevância para o risco de ocorrência de incêndios vegetacionais e as análises e ponderações seguiram o método Analise Hierárquica de Processos – AHP. A metodologia AHP foi eficiente e os risco alcançados nas três sub-bacias foram divididos em cinco classes de risco: baixo, moderado, alto, muito alto e extremo. Na sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Culuene o período com mais risco de ocorrência de incêndios vegetacionais vai de maio a setembro. Para sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Comandante Fontoura o intervalo de maior risco para acontecer incêndios está compreendido entre maio e outubro. Já para a sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Fresco, os meses de junho, julho e agosto são os que tem maior risco de registrarem a ocorrência de incêndios vegetacionais. Os Focos de calor acontecem em maior número nos meses e nas regiões indicadas no mapeamento como de maiores riscos. Para a sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Culuene os focos de calor têm ocorrência concentrada nos meses de julho e agosto e 99,72% ocorrem em áreas pertencentes as classes de risco muito alto e extremo. Por sua vez, a sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Comandante Fontoura tem os focos de calor ocorrendo em volume maior entre junho e outubro e 98,14% destes, acontecem em áreas das classes de risco alto e muito alto. Já na sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio Fresco o maior número de focos de calor é registrado em agosto e setembro, quando 96,32% dos focos são registrados em áreas das classes de risco alto e muito alto.
The study aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate elements and the seasonality of fire danger indices and the occurrence of hot spots, as well as to map the risks of occurrence of vegetation fires in river basins in the southeastern region of the Brazilian Amazon tributaries. of the Xingu River. Initially, environmental characterization and land occupation and coverage were carried out in the basins of interest. Subsequently, with daily meteorological data from 63 automatic toxicity stations from the station network of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Agritempo/EMBRAPA, the Angstrom, FMA+ and P-EVAP fire danger indices were evaluated. The three areas have similar climatic seasonality, with the rainy season between October and April, and the dry season between May and September. Thus, fire danger indices demonstrated seasonal similarities. Angstrom stated that between June and September, the number of days with fire danger is equal to or greater than 84%. The FMA+ index, indicated in the same period, 100% of days, regardless of the river basin, are in the high and very high danger classes. The P-EVAP index revealed that between June and August, 97.43% of days present high or very high fire danger. On average, 92.8%, 70.9% and 89.1% of hot spots occurred in the estimated months for the Culuene, Comandante Fontoura and Fresco river basins, respectively. The P-EVAP fire danger index, according to the Skill Score and success percentage values, showed the best results. Subsequently, a mapping of the risks of occurrence of vegetation fires in the areas was carried out, with the help of geoprocessing techniques, new environmental variables were crossed to achieve a map of the risk of occurrence of vegetation fires. Environmental changes were reclassified according to their relevance to the risk of vegetation fires and analyzes and weightings followed the Hierarchical Process Analysis – AHP method. The AHP methodology was efficient and the risks achieved in the three sub-basins were divided into five risk classes: low, moderate, high, very high and extreme. In the Culuene River sub-basin, the period with the highest risk of vegetation fires occurs from May to September. For the Comandante Fontoura river sub-basin, the highest risk period for fires is between May and October. For the Fresco River sub-basin, the months of June, July and August are those with the highest risk of vegetation fires occurring. Hot spots occur in greater numbers in the months and in regions indicated in the mapping as being at greatest risk. For the Culuene river sub-basin, hot spots have specific occurrences in the months of July and August and 99.72% occur in areas belonging to the very high and extreme risk classes. In turn, the Comandante Fontoura river sub-basin has hot spots occurring in greater volume between June and October and 98.14% of these occur in areas in the high and very high risk classes. In the Fresco river sub-basin, the highest number of hot spots is recorded in August and September, when 96.32% of hot spots are recorded in areas in the high and very high risk classes.
The study aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate elements and the seasonality of fire danger indices and the occurrence of hot spots, as well as to map the risks of occurrence of vegetation fires in river basins in the southeastern region of the Brazilian Amazon tributaries. of the Xingu River. Initially, environmental characterization and land occupation and coverage were carried out in the basins of interest. Subsequently, with daily meteorological data from 63 automatic toxicity stations from the station network of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Agritempo/EMBRAPA, the Angstrom, FMA+ and P-EVAP fire danger indices were evaluated. The three areas have similar climatic seasonality, with the rainy season between October and April, and the dry season between May and September. Thus, fire danger indices demonstrated seasonal similarities. Angstrom stated that between June and September, the number of days with fire danger is equal to or greater than 84%. The FMA+ index, indicated in the same period, 100% of days, regardless of the river basin, are in the high and very high danger classes. The P-EVAP index revealed that between June and August, 97.43% of days present high or very high fire danger. On average, 92.8%, 70.9% and 89.1% of hot spots occurred in the estimated months for the Culuene, Comandante Fontoura and Fresco river basins, respectively. The P-EVAP fire danger index, according to the Skill Score and success percentage values, showed the best results. Subsequently, a mapping of the risks of occurrence of vegetation fires in the areas was carried out, with the help of geoprocessing techniques, new environmental variables were crossed to achieve a map of the risk of occurrence of vegetation fires. Environmental changes were reclassified according to their relevance to the risk of vegetation fires and analyzes and weightings followed the Hierarchical Process Analysis – AHP method. The AHP methodology was efficient and the risks achieved in the three sub-basins were divided into five risk classes: low, moderate, high, very high and extreme. In the Culuene River sub-basin, the period with the highest risk of vegetation fires occurs from May to September. For the Comandante Fontoura river sub-basin, the highest risk period for fires is between May and October. For the Fresco River sub-basin, the months of June, July and August are those with the highest risk of vegetation fires occurring. Hot spots occur in greater numbers in the months and in regions indicated in the mapping as being at greatest risk. For the Culuene river sub-basin, hot spots have specific occurrences in the months of July and August and 99.72% occur in areas belonging to the very high and extreme risk classes. In turn, the Comandante Fontoura river sub-basin has hot spots occurring in greater volume between June and October and 98.14% of these occur in areas in the high and very high risk classes. In the Fresco river sub-basin, the highest number of hot spots is recorded in August and September, when 96.32% of hot spots are recorded in areas in the high and very high risk classes.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
índices de perigo; sazonalidade climática; focos de calor; incêndios florestais; geoprocessamento; danger indices; climate seasonality; hot spots; forest fires; geoprocessing
Citação
SILVA, Wanderson Carvalho Da. PERIGO E RISCO DE INCÊNDIOS VEGETACIONAIS EM BACIAS HIDROGRÁFICAS COM DIFERENTES NÍVEIS DE DESENVOLVIMENTO REGIONAL, NO SUDESTE DA AMAZÔNIA. 2023. Tese (Doutorado) – Curso de Ambiente e Desenvolvimento, Universidade do Vale do Taquari - Univates, Lajeado, 24 out. 2023. Disponível em: http://hdl.handle.net/10737/3932.