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Israel vs Iran War 2025: understand the geopolitical implications of the conflict taking place in the Middle East

Por Lucas George Wendt

Postado em 27/06/2025 08:57:13


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The conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025 has reached one of the most critical moments in recent Middle East history. In recent weeks, airstrikes, missile launches and violent reprisals have marked an unprecedented military escalation between the two countries.

Tensions have risen following Israeli bombings of Iranian territory, with Iran responding with missiles and drones targeting Israeli cities. Amid the war, international leaders announced a gradual ceasefire, but attacks have persisted even after the agreement, raising questions about the stability of the truce.

In this article, you will understand what motivated the conflict between Israel and Iran, the main events so far, the role of international powers such as the United States and the prospects for the future of the region. Learn how this war could impact not only the Middle East, but also the global economy, oil prices and international security.

Main events of the Israel-Iran war in 2025

June 13: Israel begins a series of airstrikes against strategic targets in Iran, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases, command centers and nuclear facilities.

June 15: Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles and drones in retaliation, hitting Israeli cities including Haifa, Be'er Sheva and Tel Aviv.

June 19: The United States provides support to Israel with bunker-buster bombs targeting Iranian nuclear bunkers.

June 22: Iran fires missiles at the US air base at Al Udeid in Qatar, increasing global tensions.

June 23: Former US President Donald Trump announces a phased ceasefire plan, with Iranian and later Israeli shutdowns beginning immediately.

June 24: Even after the agreement, new attacks are recorded. Iran hits Israeli cities and Israel responds with bombings in Tehran, including the Evin prison and IRGC intelligence centers.

Professor Mateus Dalmáz, historian and professor of International Relations at Univates, presents an overview of the military escalation in the Middle East. 

IRAN X ISRAEL IN 4 ASPECTS

By Mateus Dalmáz

The current conflict between Iran and Israel can be understood as being derived from four essential reasons: first, Israel's show of force after the Hamas attack in October 2023; second, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy of diverting the focus from internal and external negative criticism; third, Israel and the United States' desire to dismantle Iran's nuclear program; and, finally, the window of opportunity seen by Israel in a situation of Iran's fragility.

Israel's show of force in the Middle East has been one of the characteristics of Israel's response to the Hamas attack in October 2023. At that time, it is worth remembering, the radical Sunni group Hamas had launched around five thousand rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip, with the intention of interrupting the ongoing normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Israeli counterattack came in the form of intense aerial bombardments and a blockade of water, electricity and fuel in the Gaza Strip (between October and November 2023); offensives against Hamas allies in Syria and Lebanon, especially operations against Hezbollah - a radical Lebanese Shiite group allied with Hamas - on the border with Lebanon, which generated a response from Iran - financier of radical Islamic groups - and the Houthis - Shiite radicals from Yemen, allies of Iran -, with the launch of missiles against Israel, provoking an Israeli offensive against the Houthis in the port of Yemen (between January 2024 and June 2025).

The escalation of Israeli attacks on Iran intensified in June: missiles against Iranian nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) and military bases (Tabriz, Hamadan, Parchin); sabotage by the Mossad – the Israeli intelligence service – to neutralize Iran’s air defenses; Tehran’s response by launching drones and ballistic missiles against Israel; Tel Aviv’s counterattack by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in Arak/Khondab. After that, missiles were launched by both sides, hitting civilian and military targets. This chronology expresses Israel’s interest in not only dismantling Hamas and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, but also in dismantling the regional support network for Hamas, strategically and fundamentally weakening Iran and thus demonstrating power through the violent use of military force.

A second factor has to do with the use of war to alleviate internal problems in the administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli premier has been receiving negative criticism, such as the lack of a clear strategy after the offensive in Gaza (vague use of the expression “total victory”), intelligence failures in October 2023 (warnings of a Hamas attack allegedly ignored by the government), disrespect for the judiciary and authoritarian tendencies (judicial reform with limits on the power of the Supreme Court and influence of far-right parties in the government), violations of international law and war crimes against Palestinians denounced by Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), European countries (especially France) and the Global South (with Brazil acting as a sort of spokesperson), internal corruption schemes (bribes to civil servants to favor public notices for Qatar) and socioeconomic problems (public deficit and increase in emigrants). The war, therefore, has been used by Netanyahu as a symbol of strong leadership and a distraction from internal scandals and external criticism, appealing to the emergence of Israeli nationalism.

The third reason for the conflict concerns the suspicions of Israel and the United States regarding Iran's nuclear program. In recent years, a set of factors have led to a situation of distrust: rapid and high enrichment of uranium in Iran (reaching 60%, close to the 90% needed for nuclear weapons), the formation of stockpiles large enough for weapons (around 200 kg), omission and resistance to inspections by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) (covering up data, restricting access and discarding cameras), the expansion of technical capacity to produce nuclear bombs quickly (breakout) and a lack of internal confidence in the religious determination against the bomb (made by Ayatollah Khamenei in 2003).

The diplomatic repercussions of Iran's nuclear program have been negative, with multilateral sanctions against Tehran (statements by the United States, England and France to the IAEA). The Israeli attacks on Iran, therefore, converge with the West's interest in restricting uranium enrichment in Iran and also with the Israeli and American desire to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, something that could contribute to weakening the Ayatollahs' regime.

Finally, the fourth factor in understanding the conflict is the currently unfavorable international situation for Iran. Its main allies have suffered setbacks that prevent them from collaborating with Tehran: the extremist groups Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have been the target of Israeli attacks in recent months; the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, a traditional ally of the Ayatollahs, collapsed in December 2024; Russia, whose influence in the Middle East is regularly exercised by its rapprochement with Iran and Syria, is involved in the war in Ukraine, which makes it difficult to provide material support.

Iran is also vulnerable because its anti-aircraft defense, missile production and data security capabilities have been affected, which weakens it in relation to Israel, which has greater economic and military capabilities. The disadvantageous situation for Iran is compounded by the behavior of the great powers today, especially the United States and its allies: instead of integration, liberalism and multilateralism, the Trump Era has encouraged nationalism, protectionism and unilateralism, which weakens the international forums within which conflict mediation would be viable.

The level of tension between Israel and Iran is delicate, since Trump's explicit support for Netanyahu, with possible direct participation of the United States in the conflict, could attract other states to the war. However, the mobilization of leaders from the Northern and Southern hemispheres, together with the United Nations (UN), could lead to the outcome of the conflict towards a new nuclear agreement with Iran, something similar to the one that had been in place since 2015 and from which the United States unilaterally withdrew three years later, under Trump.

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